Financial Projections

Revenue & Growth

$108K Year 1 92% Margin
Cumulative Year 1
0
Conservative projection
Month 12 MRR Target
0
All 3 markets
Gross Margin
92%
80%+ routed via Ollama
COGS at 500 runs/mo
$4
on $49 subscription
gpt-4o-mini markup
98×
$0.001/task → billed
Min. Viable Price
$49
Sub-$50 = 77% churn
12-Month MRR Projections
Conservative scenario — 5–7 products active
MonthUSNGCRTotal
Mo 3$300$0$0$300
Mo 6$2,200$500$300$3,000
Mo 9$7,500$2,500$1,500$11,500
Mo 12$14,500$5,500$5,000$25,000
Unit Economics
Token costs, margins, and the Ollama advantage
Token Cost Comparison
Ollama (local) ~$0/task
gpt-4o-mini $0.001/task
Claude Sonnet $0.01/task
Intercom Fin (comp) $0.99/resolution
Strategy

Route 80%+ tasks through Ollama. Reserve cloud models for complex reasoning. Blended COGS: $4 on $49 sub = 92% margin.

Per-Tier Margin Analysis
Starter $49/mo 92% margin
COGS: ~$4 · Profit: ~$45
Pro $149/mo 88% margin
COGS: ~$18 · Profit: ~$131
Business $399/mo 85% margin
COGS: ~$60 · Profit: ~$339
Launch Pack $1,500 95%+ margin
One-time · COGS: ~$75 · Profit: ~$1,425
Break-Even Analysis
Monthly fixed costs (solo)
Cloud API budget$200
SaaS tools$300
Domain + hosting$50
Stripe fees (~3%)variable
Total Fixed~$550/mo
Break-Even

Break-even at ~12 Starter customers ($49×12 = $588). Achievable in Month 1-2.

Costa Rica Advantage

Zona Franca + territorial tax = effectively 0% tax on foreign-sourced revenue. Maximizes take-home on every dollar earned internationally.

Month 12 Revenue Mix
Projected distribution across products and markets
By Product (Top 7)
By Market
United States
$14,500 (58%)
Nigeria
$5,500 (22%)
Costa Rica
$5,000 (20%)
Financial Milestones
Key revenue checkpoints to track
MilestoneTarget MonthMRR GoalKey DriverStatus
Break-Even Mo 1–2 $588+ 12 Starter subscribers Critical
First $1K MRR Mo 2–3 $1,000 US ChatDesk + AgentOps Critical
Ramen Profitable Mo 3 $3,000 Cover personal expenses Important
Nigeria Active Mo 4–6 $500 NG ChatDesk WhatsApp launch Important
$10K Total MRR Mo 8–9 $10,000 All 3 markets live Stretch
$25K MRR Target Mo 12 $25,000 7 products, 3 markets Stretch
Churn Risk — Critical Pricing Rule

Research (ChartMogul 2025): AI SaaS products priced below $50/mo churn at 77% within 90 days. Products must be priced at $49+ minimum. Free tiers are audience-building tools only — not revenue vehicles. The $9/$29 pricing model was rejected for this reason.